Buccaneers vs. Panthers prediction: Can Carolina end Tampa Bay's four-year NFC South reign?
The Panthers will win the South with a victory, while the Buccaneers need a win and a Falcons loss
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4 min read
Week 18 will kick off Saturday afternoon from Tampa where the Buccaneers (7-9) and Carolina Panthers (8-8) will square off with the NFC South division title and the conference's No. 4 postseason seed on the line.
The host Buccaneers are seeking to become the first NFC team to win (but will still have to wait for Saints-Falcons result on Sunday) five consecutive division titles since the 1990s' Dallas Cowboys dynasty (1992-1996), and in doing so, they would own the longest division title streak by any NFC South team since the 2022 divisional realignment. The visiting Panthers are seeking their first playoff appearance since 2017 and their first division title since 2015 when they won the NFC and played in Super Bowl 50.
Both squads enter the final week of the regular season stumbling into their division-deciding matchup. Tampa Bay is on a four-game losing streak and has lost seven of its last eight games after a 6-2 start. Meanwhile, Carolina has been a rollercoaster all season, going 10 consecutive games alternating a win and a loss, which is tied for the fourth-longest such streak of all time.
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Tyler Sullivan
It's worth noting this game is only a win-and-in situation for the Panthers, who can clinch the division with a win or a tie. The Buccaneers need to win and have the New Orleans Saints beat the Atlanta Falcons in order to clinch the 2025 NFC South title. Even if Tampa Bay wins, should the Falcons win, there would be a three-way tie for the NFC South -- a tie that Carolina would win.
Where to watch Buccaneers vs. Panthers live
- Date: Saturday, Jan. 3 | Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
- TV: ABC/ESPN | Stream: Fubo (try for free)
- Follow: CBS Sports App
- Odds: Buccaneers -3, O/U 43.5 (via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Panthers vs. Buccaneers: Need to know
Which Baker Mayfield will show up?
Baker Mayfield's 2025 season has been a rollercoaster. He was on fire through the first six games of the year, throwing 12 touchdowns to just one interception, and the Buccaneers won five of their first six games as a result. The last 10 weeks, Mayfield underwent an epic collapse with 13 touchdowns to nine interceptions, playing a major role in Tampa Bay losing eight of their last 10 games, including the last four in a row.
One of those defeats was a 23-20 loss at the Panthers in Week 16 two weeks ago. He threw for 145 yards, one touchdown and one interception on 18 of 26 passing with the interception sealing the game's outcome with 49 seconds left to play. Carolina only blitzed Mayfield on six of his 12 dropbacks in that game with the two-time Pro Bowler completing one of his three throws for a 1-yard touchdown pass to Mike Evans.
Perhaps the Panthers opt to break tendency and blitz Mayfield a little more on Saturday. On the season, Carolina possesses a 29.2% blitz rate, right around league average at the 15th-highest rate. Mayfield has been a mess this season against the blitz with the second-lowest completion percentage (50.7%), the lowest yards per pass attempt (5.2) and the second-lowest passer rating (69.4) against it in 2025.
| Baker Mayfield this season | First 6 games | Last 10 games |
|---|---|---|
W-L | 5-1 | 2-8 |
Comp Pct | 66.2% | 60.7% |
Pass YPG | 256.5 | 195.1 |
TD-INT | 12-1 | 13-9 |
| Passer Rating | 108.5 | 79.4 |
Will Bryce Young be able to repeat his Week 16 performance against the Buccaneers?
Two weeks ago in a 23-20 home win over the Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young played one of his best games of the season, completing 21 of his 32 throws for 191 yards and two passing touchdowns. However, Young and his supporting cast melted down against the top-seeded Seattle Seahawks in Charlotte in Week 17: he threw 54 yards, his fewest in any start of his three-year career, and an interception on 14 of 24 passing.
Young's 29 career starts with fewer than 200 yards passing are the fourth-most by a quarterback in their first three seasons since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger. He thrived against Tampa Bay throwing short, completing 16 of his 18 passes on throws of under 10 air yards for 101 yards passing. Young hit two of his three throws on 20-plus air yards for 56 yards and a score, including a 22-yard touchdown to rookie first-round wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan. He'll need to pull off a couple of those explosive plays to McMillan to keep the Buccaneers' defense honest. Otherwise, he could have a second consecutive long afternoon.
Can Jaycee Horn make a game-changing play?
Jaycee Horn, Carolina's two-time Pro Bowl cornerback, is having a career year. His five interceptions are a career-high, and they're tied for the second-most in the NFL with all five coming on deep throws, passes of 20 or more air yards. In the Week 16 matchup against Tampa Bay, Mayfield didn't throw his as Horn wasn't targeted on 29 coverage snaps. That stands as the only game of Horn's career with a minimum of 15 coverage snaps and no targets.
He covered Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans on seven matchups, wide receiver Chris Godwin on five matchups and wide receiver Jalen McMillan on three matchups per NFL Pro. If Horn can make a play to reel in his sixth interception of the season, the Panthers will likely clinch the NFC South title. The Buccaneers are 0-8 in games that Mayfield throws an interception this season.
Panthers vs. Buccaneers prediction, pick
Tampa Bay has won five consecutive home games against Carolina with their last loss against the visiting Panthers coming all the way back in 2019. That streak ends on Saturday. Horn will intercept Mayfield to set up Young with advantageous field position to throw a game-winning touchdown pass to McMillan for a one-score win.
Pick: Panthers 24, Buccaneers 20 | (Panthers +3, Over 43.5)
